Oklahoma Governor, 2026 General Election

Results

Ballot test

Likely voters: Mazzei 39, Munson 36. Registered voters: Mazzei 33, Munson 30. The race is a statistical tie: Mazzei's 2- to 3-point edge is well inside the credibility interval on the gap. Nearly a third of registered voters (32%) are undecided, up from 27% two weeks ago, a change within the interval. Based on 128 registered voters surveyed Oct. 7–12, 2026.

Reading these numbers

This poll and CTP 2026-01 tell the same story: Mazzei a few points ahead of Munson, inside the credibility interval, with a large undecided bloc that leans his way when pushed. Across the two polls, 246 registered voters have been surveyed; neither shows a lead outside its interval. The sample again leaned Democratic before weighting: 69 respondents reported voting for Kamala Harris in 2024 against 28 for Donald Trump, so each Trump voter counts about twice after weighting (mean weight 1.9, largest 3.6). The design effect is 1.95 among registered voters. Crosstabs are published only for groups of 50 or more respondents. Four qualify: likely voters (the table above), 2024 Harris voters and Trump disapprovers (tables below), and registered Democrats, who split Munson 81, Mazzei 0, an independent 1, undecided 18 (n = 56, weighted). No other subgroup, including registered Republicans (24) or any age or education band, reached 50.

Mazzei is winning Republicans, but not yet consolidating them

The clearest pattern in the two polls is a gap in how firmly each party has settled on its candidate. Pooling both surveys gives 77 registered Republicans and 92 registered Democrats, enough to compare. 55% of Republicans back Mazzei and 31% are undecided; 87% of Democrats back Munson and 10% are undecided. The 32-point difference is far larger than the sampling noise in groups this size (the pooled Republican figure carries an interval of roughly ±11 points), and it runs the same direction in each poll on its own. Because the comparison is within party, it does not depend on the panel's overall partisan lean. It does depend on which Republicans join an online panel; if the panel misses the most loyal Republicans, Republican consolidation is understated here. The Trump-approval check below does not settle whether it does.

The undecided Republicans are not drifting toward Munson. In this poll, 5 of the 7 lean Mazzei when asked and the other 2 remain undecided, and 6 of the 7 say they are following the race "not too closely" or "not at all": too few to characterize, but consistent with low attention rather than defection. Counting leaners, Republican support for Mazzei is 70% across the two polls (54 of 77; 18 of 24 in this poll), still short of what Democrats give Munson outright. The same pattern appears among 2024 Trump voters (63% Mazzei, 31% undecided) and among respondents who approve of Trump (60% Mazzei, 37% undecided, none for Munson). That gap, more than any defection, is why the race reads as a tie. The two polls used different sample designs and these figures are unweighted, so the pooled numbers are a comparison, not a formal combined estimate.

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Benchmark checks

Two questions with known answers

The pre-registration added two items whose true values are known or independently measured, so readers can judge how far this sample sits from Oklahoma's electorate after weighting. The ballot by 2024 vote, also promised in the pre-registration, follows the two checks.

Check 1: Trump job approval

Civiqs' daily online tracker, the only Oklahoma approval measure updated during our field window, put Trump at 47% approve, 44% disapprove, 9% neither in Oklahoma on Oct. 12, 2026, the day our field period closed. This poll finds 41% approve, 58% disapprove among registered voters, with 1% unsure. Civiqs is itself an opt-in online panel, far larger and longer-running than ours, and its approve figure sits inside this poll's own ±12 interval. Much of the difference on disapproval reflects the larger neutral share Civiqs records.

The comparison has to be read against a falling national number. Trump's approval has slid through the fall: national polling averages put him near 39–40% approve and 58% disapprove in mid-October, at or near the lows of his second term, and Civiqs' own national reading is 34% approve. Civiqs' Oklahoma figure has eased too, from 48% approve in late September. Two explanations fit our lower number. Our panel may under-reach Republicans who remain loyal to Trump, which the 2024-vote weighting cannot fix. Or Trump's standing in Oklahoma may be softer than Civiqs' model shows, consistent with the national trend. One fact argues against the first explanation: among the 28 respondents who voted for Trump in 2024, 73% approve of his job performance, close to the 76% of Republicans nationally who approve in Civiqs' tracker. A sample of 128 cannot tell the two explanations apart.

The distinction matters for the ballot. If the gap reflects who joins the panel, Mazzei's share here is likely understated; if it reflects real erosion in Trump's standing, it is not. We report the numbers as found and make no adjustment. The ballot split by Trump approval shows how closely the two track.

Only 26 respondents approve of Trump, so the Approve column carries an interval of about ±20 points. Still, no Trump approver chose Munson, and 37% of them are undecided.

Check 2: recalled 2022 governor vote

Among the 72 respondents who say they voted in the 2022 governor's race, the recalled vote is Stitt 63, Hofmeister 29, someone else 8 (weighted). The certified result was Stitt 55.5, Hofmeister 41.8, other 2.7. Overstating the winner and the "someone else" share is typical of recalled-vote questions and does not by itself indicate a skewed sample, but this check will be more useful once several polls can be compared.

Ballot by 2024 presidential vote

The weights hold each 2024 vote group at its certified share of registrants, so these columns show how each group splits, not how large it is. Only the Harris column reaches 50 respondents; the Trump and did-not-vote columns carry intervals of roughly ±20 and ±22 points.

Six respondents voted for someone else or declined to say. The 8 Trump voters who now disapprove of him split Mazzei 39, Munson 11, undecided 50; too few to read.

Methodology

How this poll was conducted

This disclosure follows the items required by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.

Sponsor

Cross Timbers Poll, a nonpartisan, independent polling project.

Conducted by

Cross Timbers Poll

Funding

Cross Timbers Poll LLC is registered in Oklahoma and is funded by members who are private citizens with no campaign, party or committee role. It accepts no money from candidates, campaigns, parties, political committees or outside donors.

Population

Adults registered to vote in Oklahoma.

Sample source

Prolific, an opt-in online research panel. This is a nonprobability sample. A single study invited Oklahoma panel members with quotas on Prolific's self-reported political affiliation (Democrat 62, Republican 48, Independent 95, Other 10, None 25, Prefer not to say 10; n = 250). Everyone who took CTP 2026-01 was excluded. The quotas were not filled. 145 submissions were approved by the Oct. 12 deadline: Democrat 62, Independent 48, Republican 16, Other 6, Prefer not to say 6, and 7 whose affiliation Prolific did not report. The Democratic cell filled; the independent cell reached 48 of 95 and the Republican cell 16 of 48. Only 16 of the 79 Oklahoma Republicans active on Prolific at launch took part in six days. As the pre-registration required, the study stopped at the deadline and the achieved sample is reported.

Screening

Respondents confirmed Oklahoma voter registration and gave a ZIP code. Those who were not registered, were unsure, or gave a non-Oklahoma ZIP code are excluded.

Mode and language

Self-administered online questionnaire, in English, on mobile, tablet or desktop.

Field dates

Wednesday, Oct. 7, through Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. The first response arrived at 2:45 a.m. Central on Oct. 7; the study closed at 11:59 p.m. Central on Oct. 12, and the last response arrived at 5:32 p.m. that day.

Incentive

Respondents were paid $0.70 through Prolific for a survey of about two minutes (median 1:41).

Quality checks

Removed before analysis: failed attention check (Q9), completion time under 40% of the median, and duplicate panel IDs.

Submissions approved on Prolific (148 completed the form; 3 were returned or timed out)	145
Not registered in Oklahoma or unsure (removed 14)	131
Non-Oklahoma ZIP code (removed 1)	130
Failed attention check (removed 2)	128
Duplicate panel ID (removed 0)	128
Under 40 seconds, 40% of the 1:41 median (removed 0)	128

Likely voters

Respondents who will definitely or probably vote (Q3) and who either voted in 2022 or 2024 or are following the race very or somewhat closely (Q4–Q6). 91 of 128 respondents.

Weighting

Raked to two official benchmarks. Party registration, Oklahoma State Election Board, Aug. 31, 2026: Republican 53.1%, Democrat 25.3%, Independent and Libertarian combined 21.6% (the two are raked as one cell, as pre-registered; 43 independents and 2 Libertarians). 2024 presidential vote among current registrants, from certified results: Trump 42.5%, Harris 20.5%, other 1.2%, did not vote 35.8%. Respondents answering “not sure” or “prefer not to say” keep their sample share. Weights were to be trimmed at 5.0; the largest weight was 3.6, so none was trimmed. Design effect 1.95 among registered voters, 2.18 among likely voters. The sample is not weighted for age, gender, education, race or region; see Limitations.

Composition check

The pre-registration called for age and education to be weighted only if the valid sample reached 200, and reported unweighted otherwise. Unweighted, of 128: age 18–29: 26 (20%), 30–44: 60 (47%), 45–64: 38 (30%), 65 or older: 4 (3%). Education high school or less: 18 (14%), some college or associate degree: 49 (38%), bachelor's: 43 (34%), graduate or professional: 18 (14%). Gender women 93 (73%), men 33 (26%), other or not stated 2. The sample is far younger and more female than Oklahoma's electorate, and voters 65 and older are badly underrepresented; weighting on party and 2024 vote does not correct this.

Question order

Questions appear in the order shown below. Candidate order on the ballot question was randomized for each respondent, and the lean question was shown only to respondents who answered Undecided.

Deviations from pre-registration

One. The quota sample of 250 was not reached; 145 submissions were approved by the deadline and the study stopped, as the pre-registration required. Everything else — exclusion rules, weighting targets, the 200-respondent threshold for age and education weighting (not met, so both are reported unweighted above), likely-voter definition, and the reporting list — was applied as pre-registered.

Limitations

What this poll cannot tell you

• It is an opt-in online sample. Respondents chose to join Prolific and to take this survey. Prolific's Oklahoma members lean Democratic: before weighting, respondents reported voting for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 by 69 to 28, the reverse of the state's result. Weighting corrects party registration and 2024 vote, but not every way panel members differ from other voters.
• The sample is smaller than planned. The pre-registered target was 250; 128 valid registered voters were obtained, 24 of them registered Republicans. Each Trump voter counts about twice after weighting, and the effective sample is 66 registered voters (42 likely voters).
• The panel's Republicans may not be typical Republicans. Before weighting, only 20% of respondents approved of Trump and 1 of 128 strongly approved of Gov. Stitt, in a state where Republicans are a majority of registrants. Weighting restores the Republican share but cannot make the Republicans who join an online panel representative of all Republicans. Trump approval also runs below the Civiqs benchmark (41% here, 47% there), though that gap is within this poll's interval and may partly reflect Trump's falling national approval; see Benchmark checks.
• Weighting covers two variables. The sample is weighted to party registration and 2024 presidential vote only. Age, gender, education, race and region are not weighted; the unweighted sample is much younger and more female than the electorate (see Composition check), so the results may be off on groups that differ within party and past vote.
• Independents lean heavily to Munson in this sample. As in CTP 2026-01, registered independents favor Munson by a wide margin. That may reflect the panel rather than Oklahoma's independents.
• Likely voters are self-reported. The likely-voter group relies on respondents' own statements about voting, not on vote history from the voter file.

Measuring error

Why we report a credibility interval

A traditional margin of sampling error assumes every voter had a known chance of being selected. Opt-in online panels don't meet that assumption, so AAPOR advises against reporting one for them. Instead, each release reports a credibility interval: a range, based on the effective sample size after weighting, within which the true value is likely to fall if the weighting model is sound.

A gap between two candidates carries roughly twice the uncertainty of either number alone. Our releases say plainly when a lead falls inside that range.

Questionnaire

Every question, in the order asked

Respondents saw this introduction: “This is a short, anonymous survey about Oklahoma politics. It takes about 2 minutes. There are no right or wrong answers.”

Our standards

What every Cross Timbers Poll release includes

• The full questionnaire, in the order asked, including screening and attention-check items.
• Unweighted and weighted sample sizes, the design effect, and a credibility interval rather than a margin of sampling error.
• Weighting variables, target values and their public sources.
• Toplines and crosstabs for every group with at least 50 respondents.
• Counts of respondents removed at each quality check.
• De-identified respondent-level data, available to journalists and researchers on request.
• Corrections posted on the release page with the date and what changed. Past figures are never silently edited.
• No results are withheld because of what they show.

About

Who we are

Cross Timbers Poll is a nonpartisan, independent public polling project run by engaged citizens. We conduct surveys in races and on topics that might otherwise go without public polling, and we publish every result with the full methodology behind it.

We do not work for, coordinate with, or accept direction from any candidate, campaign, party or political committee. No one outside Cross Timbers Poll sees results before they are published.

Funding. Cross Timbers Poll LLC is registered in Oklahoma and is funded by members who are private citizens with no campaign, party or committee role. It accepts no money from candidates, campaigns, parties, political committees or outside donors, and no one outside the project has any role in choosing questions, conducting surveys, or deciding what is published.

Journalists and researchers can request the respondent-level data or ask methodology questions at:

Pre-registration

CTP 2026-02: methodology as pre-registered

Posted Oct. 7, 2026, before data collection began, and reproduced here unchanged. The design was fixed in advance so that no analytic choice could be made, or appear to be made, in response to the results. The one deviation, the sample shortfall, is disclosed in the methodology above; the quota counts, exclusion counts, composition check and every item on the reporting list appear there and in the results.

Population

Adults 18+ registered to vote in Oklahoma.

Field window

Begins when the study is published on Prolific (target Oct. 7, 2026); closes end of day Monday, Oct. 12, 2026 (Central) or at 250 completes, whichever comes first. If quota cells remain unfilled at the deadline, the study stops and the achieved sample is reported with the shortfall disclosed. No mid-field changes to quotas, targets or questions.

Sample source

Prolific opt-in online panel, Oklahoma residents, with everyone who took CTP 2026-01 excluded. A single quota sample set at launch on Prolific's self-reported U.S. political affiliation: Democrat 62, Republican 48, Independent 95, Other 10, None 25, Prefer not to say 10 (n = 250). The Republican quota is capped by the available pool (79 active members); party registration is corrected in weighting. Prolific offers no 2024-vote attribute, so the 2024 vote is handled entirely by the raking targets below.

Instrument

Google Forms, linked from Prolific. Candidate order on the ballot question is randomized per respondent. The candidate-lean follow-up is shown only to respondents who answer Undecided. Prolific IDs are captured by URL for payment and deduplication only; no names or emails are collected.

Compensation

$0.70 per complete (about $21/hour at the 2-minute estimate), Prolific's competitive pay band for this audience.

Changes from CTP 2026-01

Randomized candidate order; lean question branched to undecideds only; two benchmark items added — Trump job approval (measures Trump-voter defection directly instead of modeling it) and the 2022 governor vote (Stitt 55.5%, Hofmeister 41.8% certified), both reported against known or independently measured values regardless of how they come out. All other questions identical for trend comparability.

Exclusions

Applied in order, with counts reported: not registered in Oklahoma or unsure; ZIP outside 73001–74966; failed attention check; duplicate Prolific ID; completion time under 40% of the median. Returned, timed-out and rejected submissions are excluded automatically.

Weighting

Raking on two margins among valid registered respondents, weights trimmed at 5.0: party registration (OK State Election Board, Aug. 31, 2026: Republican 53.1%, Democrat 25.3%, Independent + Libertarian 21.6%) and the 2024 presidential vote as a share of current registrants (certified: Trump 42.5%, Harris 20.5%, other 1.2%, did not vote 35.8%). "Not sure" and "prefer not to say" keep their sample shares. If the valid sample reaches n ≥ 200, age (18–29/30–44/45–64/65+) and education (4 bands) are added as third and fourth margins using ACS 1-year estimates for Oklahoma adult citizens; below 200 they are reported unweighted as a composition check only.

Likely voters

Will definitely or probably vote, AND voted in 2022 or 2024 or follows the race very or somewhat closely. Registered-voter and likely-voter results are both reported.

Reporting

Topline with effective sample size, design effect and 95% credibility intervals; leaned ballot; Stitt and Trump approval; ballot by Trump approval and by 2024 vote; both benchmark checks; full question wording; and this pre-registration, unchanged.

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